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Investing during volatile markets

Surprises happen, often Taking a step back, we had no clue about the PM’s announcement about the de-monetization (banning of Rs 500 & Rs 1000 currency notes) and are still to come to terms with the impact and the after effects of the move. Neither had anyone any idea that a certain Donald Trump, a political first-timer, will be elected the President of the US of America!  But both events happened, and took most, if not all of us, by surprise. Coming back to Indian markets, the commentators are as divided on the economic and political impact of the anti-black money drive on the common man as they were clueless about such an event unfolding. However, prima facie, I see the following likely outcomes: Rise in deposits, will bring down rates: If the so far, surge in bank deposits (Rs 4 lakh crores so far; ~4% of total deposits) are anything to go by, the move may shore up bank deposits which in turn would swell short term liquidity in the system, putting downward pres

Value of revisiting the past...

  Growing up, reading History was boring to say the least. I failed to see the relevance of learning about the past. Also, there were hardly any bright job prospects with this subject. But with time (inevitably) and better judgement (hopefully ;) I find that this view was myopic and flawed. I think the retelling of an extreme event (like Nazi Holocaust, Hindu genocide of Kashmir etc) may evoke strong emotions. That is natural. But there is a logic to why History is taught in schools. So that we may LEARN FROM THE PAST and RESPOND TO THREATS / OPPORTUNITY better. I see little harm in people encouraging each other to watch a movie based on publicly available incontrovertible historical facts. At School level, Sir Francis taught us about Concertation camps' atrocities in Std 8. I thought it was crazy to shell shock 8th Graders to such inhumanity. But it also made us aware that the real world is not a fairy tale. IF a bad event has happened, we must ensure it never happens ag

Observations, (likely) Implications & View - March 2022

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Observations, Implications & View : #1 Ukraine indicates it is ready to drop plans for NATO membership: https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-says-no-longer-interested-in-nato-membership-122030801616_1.html   #2 UAE, Saudi kingdoms choose to ignore the USA: https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/saudi-uae-leaders-ignore-biden-when-he-calls-to-talk-gas-prices-report/   #3 VISA, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/visa-mastercard-russia-ukraine-invasion/   #4 Rating Agencies cut the Russian debt ratings: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-08/card/fitch-sees-imminent-russian-default-as-it-downgrades-again-YlyD4VdcSKi7dCdYkdDu   https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-rating-ca-rise-default-risk-2022-03-06/   Observations, Implications & View The trust on the might (and likely implementation of promises of protection

Dark clouds

  I was witnessing with great sadness and despair as a neighboring nation, which once sported an open and progressive society and economically too was making a mark in the world, is now on the verge of getting enveloped in the thick black smoke of hate and violence. Politically, and strategically, such a decline will undoubtedly leave a more difficult (and dangerous) regional equation for countries like India. However, the deafening silence of our own liberal-left on the clear and present danger and on the human crimes (be it beheadings or hangings etc) clearly exposes how shallow their own “liberal” and “secular” ideologies are. While talking about this international situation, I am only painting a backdrop to the ever-darkening atmosphere for India. In this light another of our neighbor, who is growing more powerful and belligerent with each passing day, we at our present state of affairs, are ill-equipped to compete against. This neighbor, lets call it Red-2, is taking multiple

Lockdown blues...

Its been a while since we are all locked up. And the raging pandemic continues to make mockery of Human lives and livelihood. Hold on....Keep your chin up...because every night has a dawn that follows it (so as they say.....scientifically not true though)

Letters to my son #1 – Being human

Many a times we make mistakes, some times we are not taken seriously and sometimes we meet with failure too. Intellectuals as well as idiots are often in love with their own selves, their own ideas and will seldom listen to you. Even in the stock markets, when I regularly come across super-intelligent people every day, many a times, our thoughts and perspective differs. This difference of opinion, will always be there. One must understand to live with it and respect it too. Some people are hot-headed and blunt, and you may feel hurt at times. Some are way-too frank and you may also feel slighted by their way of talking, even when they may mean no harm. How to deal with these? Should you get angry or ignore it? How to deal with rejection and, sometimes disappointment? Let me remind you, Krishna, was a simple cowherd to many. He was the best of statesman, a fierce warrior, yet he often maintained his visage of the humble and lovable Gopala. Despite being the incarnation of L

Contrarian Thinking explained

Going against the herd is the key principle of Value investment. This is where it differs from the chartists etc who essentially try to “go with the flow”. Going with the flow is great while swimming. Contrarian thinking is not based on ignoring known facts or just trying to be different / brave. It essentially means stripping out the emotions from the current situation and looking at things in black and white. Explaining with a demo: Let me make this clear with an example. I am sure “3 idiots” a popular bollywood flick, was enjoyed by one and all (including  me). Most of us will also swear by the “message” of the movie. But on a slightly deeper analysis, the movie shows big fallacies and inconsistencies in its events and incidents. I will take one: a student commits suicide since the heartless professor didn’t allow him extra time/credits for project submission. CONSENSUS view: Poor student had to die because of the arrogant SOB Virus (nickname of the teacher). D